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Analyst: Modern Warfare 2 To Sell 11.1 Million In 2009

Tom Ivan's picture

By Tom Ivan

June 15, 2009

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Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey believes Activision’s Modern Warfare 2 will likely be the biggest videogame release of 2009.

The Infinity Ward developed FPS, which is due for release on Xbox 360, PS3 and PC in November, is the direct sequel to 2007’s Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare, which has sold over 13 million copies.

Hickey said he expects the game to sell 11.1 million units by the end of 2009, generating $803 million at retail.

“Given our CY09 sell through estimates for Modern Warfare 2, it’s possible that the game could be one of the largest entertainment releases of all time,” he said in a research note.

“If you assume similar channel unit sales velocity as GTA IV, the game could potentially sell through 7.8 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $569 million in the first week. Continuing the same channel logic, it’s possible the game could sell through to consumers’ 4.6 million units globally with an estimated retail value of more than $338 million in the first day.”

Last year Grand Theft Auto IV sold 3.6 million units on its opening day with a retail value of approximately $310 million, and generated over $500 million during its launch week, surpassing the all-time entertainment records for day one and week one sales by dollar value, according to publisher Take-Two.

Hickey’s forecasts echo publisher Activision’s confidence in the game. Last week Activision Publishing CEO Mike Griffith said he expects Modern Warfare 2 to be the bestselling title in the Call Of Duty series to date and “one of, if not the largest, title in the industry this year."

plastorgas's picture

11.1 million is a LOT.

Amazing how the only industry that gets the money nowadays is the gaming industry!

Whou would have believed this a decade ago?

---
mago

mentor07825's picture

There's always a chance that's the case, but I'd love to see their faces when they hear the news that it's the biggest flop of 2009.

German's picture

Don't think there is actually any chance of the game being a flop at all, just by the name alone the game will sell incredibly well even if its terrible (which is almost impossible to happen given Infinity Ward's track record), just look at E.T. game it sold quite good at first just before people found out it sucked and returned it.

Matthew Dart's picture


By the way you worded your sentence it sounded as if you meant to say that Infinity Ward developed E.T. I'm like "where is this guy getting that from?".

Yes, Modern Warfare 2 will be the biggest release this year. I wonder if it will continue to be so through 2010, even.

mentor07825's picture

I know, it won't flop. The name alone "Call of Duty" guarentees some form of return. No doubt it being the sequel to an excellent game would bring about a lot of money for them.

Yeah...I remember E.T.....shortly after that I remember the Video Game Crash happened as well....good times!

NickgamertagO1's picture

Probably.