Games industry analysts have weighed in with US sales predictions for the month of February ahead of the NPD Group’s release of official market data this Thursday.

Wedbush’s Michael Pachter forecast console and handheld software sales of $665 million, down ten per cent compared to last February’s $737 million, while Cowen and Company’s Doug Creutz said he expects a 16 per cent decline.

Pachter believes the month’s bestselling games were holiday top-sellers Call Of Duty Modern Warfare 2, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Fit Plus, along with January release Mass Effect 2 and February launches BioShock 2 and Dante’s Inferno.

Creutz forecast 990,000 Bioshock 2 sales in Feb, noting that the game made a “decent start”, although he believes “sales tailed off significantly after the first week”. He also predicted 510,000 Dante’s Inferno sales.

While the results appear set to mark the eleventh decline for US software sales in the last 12 months, Pachter views February as “the last cloud on the horizon”. He expects "industry sales to improve significantly starting in March, with a rebound to positive territory as high-profile games begin to be released on a more consistent basis (top March games are Battlefield: Bad Company 2, Final Fantasy XIII, Pokémon, and God of War III).”

Likewise, Creutz forecast “significantly improved software sales trends beginning in March”.

On the hardware front, Pachter and EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believe PS3 was the only console to record year-on-year growth, while Nintendo platforms continued to top console sales despite supply constraints. Combined hardware sales are expected to have declined in the region of 30 per cent.

Wedbush / EEDAR February hardware sales estimates (change year-on-year):

Wii - 455,000 (-40%) / 425,000 (-44%)
DS - 425,000 (-28%) / 401,000 (-32%)
PS3 - 300,000 (+9%) / 280,000 (+1%)
Xbox 360 - 350,000 (-10%) / 335,000 (-14%)
PSP - 95,000 (-52%) / 90,000 (-55%)
PS2 - 45,000 (-66%) / 50,000 (-62%)
Total - 1,670,000 (-29%) / 1,581,000 (-32%)